Executive Condo Singapore
The first EC launch in Singapore was the Eastvale project back in 1999 at an average price of $406/psf. Since then, new EC prices have risen significantly and are currently at about $1,100+/psf for new launches in 2021.
There is no doubt that ECs are getting increasingly expensive. For EC projects completed in 2008, their average launch prices were about $380. That doubled for those projects that were completed in 2013, with prices rising to about $690-770/psf.
Prices increased at a more moderate pace for EC projects completed in 2018-2019, with their launch prices at about $750-800/psf range. Since then, EC launched prices have crept up to the $1,100/psf level.
In this article, we look to do a quick analysis of the EC market to find out which is the best performing EC projects of all time as well as over the past 1-year.
Some interesting conclusions can be found from this article.
Best performing EC in Singapore
The table below shows the full list of 72 EC projects from 1999 onwards to the latest project which has yet to be launched, Parc Greenwich, where the tentative launch price is rumored to be set at $1,000/psf which is a discount to recently launched projects that were launched at an average of $1,100+/psf.
Executive Condo | Launched | Completion | Ave Launch price (psf) | |
1 | Eastvale | Sep-96 | Jan-99 | 406 |
2 | Westmere | Sep-96 | Feb-99 | 401 |
3 | Chestervale | Sep-97 | Mar-99 | 455 |
4 | Simei Green Condo Pinevale | Mar-97 | Apr-99 | 402 |
5 | Pinevale | Sep-97 | Jul-99 | 459 |
6 | Windermere | Jun-97 | Sep-99 | 357 |
7 | The Florida | Jun-98 | Feb-00 | 441 |
8 | The Rivervale | May-98 | Jun-00 | 472 |
9 | Woodsvale | Aug-98 | Aug-00 | 354 |
10 | Yew Mei Green | Mar-98 | Sep-00 | 427 |
11 | Summerdale | May-98 | Sep-00 | 441 |
12 | The Floravale | Apr-99 | Oct-00 | 359 |
13 | Northoaks | Jul-98 | Oct-00 | 360 |
14 | Lilydale | Dec-01 | Mar-03 | 353 |
15 | The Eden at Tampines | May-01 | Apr-03 | 428 |
16 | The Dew | May-01 | Jul-03 | 377 |
17 | Bishan Loft | Jul-01 | Sep-03 | 408 |
18 | Nuovo | Nov-01 | Aug-04 | 394 |
19 | Park Green | Sep-02 | Sep-04 | 388 |
20 | Whitewater | Dec-02 | Jan-05 | 364 |
21 | The Esparis | Aug-02 | Jun-05 | 393 |
22 | The Quintet | Oct-03 | Oct-06 | 370 |
23 | La Casa | May-05 | Feb-08 | 382 |
24 | Prive | Jan-11 | Jul-13 | 691 |
25 | Esparina Residences | Oct-10 | Sep-13 | 767 |
26 | The Canopy | Nov-10 | Jan-14 | 651 |
27 | Austville Residences | Jan-11 | Apr-14 | 728 |
28 | Belysa | Jun-11 | May-14 | 661 |
29 | RiverParc Residence | Jul-11 | Jun-14 | 681 |
30 | Arc at tampines | Oct-11 | Aug-14 | 736 |
31 | Blossom Residences | Jul-11 | Sep-14 | 685 |
32 | Watercolours | Jun-12 | Dec-14 | 728 |
33 | The Tampines Trilliant | Jan-12 | Feb-15 | 781 |
34 | The Rainforest | Feb-12 | Mar-15 | 745 |
35 | Twin Waterfalls | Mar-12 | Jun-15 | 730 |
36 | 1 Canberra | Jun-12 | Sep-15 | 705 |
37 | Heron Bay | Oct-12 | Oct-15 | 736 |
38 | Waterwoods | Nov-13 | Dec-15 | 800 |
39 | Waterbay | Nov-12 | Jan-16 | 755 |
40 | Citylife @ Tampines | Feb-13 | Feb-16 | 796 |
41 | The Topiary | Dec-12 | Mar-16 | 735 |
42 | Twin Fountains | May-13 | Mar-16 | 743 |
43 | Forestville | Jul-13 | Apr-16 | 729 |
44 | Lush Acres | Sep-13 | Jun-16 | 792 |
45 | Ecopolitan | Sep-13 | Aug-16 | 792 |
46 | Sea Horizon | Sep-13 | Oct-16 | 813 |
47 | Skypark Residences | Nov-13 | Aug-16 | 796 |
48 | Lake Life | Nov-14 | Dec-16 | 872 |
49 | Bellewoods | Dec-14 | Mar-17 | 799 |
50 | BelleWaters | Dec-14 | May-17 | 817 |
51 | The Terrace | Dec-14 | May-17 | 812 |
52 | The Amore | Jan-15 | Nov-16 | 800 |
53 | Westwood Residences | May-15 | Oct-17 | 803 |
54 | The Vales | Jul-15 | May-17 | 789 |
55 | The Brownstone | Jul-15 | Oct-17 | 814 |
56 | Sol Acres | Aug-15 | Apr-18 | 787 |
57 | Signature at Yishun | Sep-15 | Jul-17 | 772 |
58 | The Criterion | Oct-15 | Feb-18 | 796 |
59 | Wandervale | Mar-16 | Mar-18 | 765 |
60 | The visionaire | Apr-16 | Jun-18 | 815 |
61 | Parc Life | Apr-16 | Mar-18 | 785 |
62 | Northwave | Jul-16 | Feb-19 | 746 |
63 | Treasure Crest | Jul-16 | Sep-18 | 747 |
64 | INZ Residence | Mar-17 | Apr-19 | 774 |
65 | Hundred Palms Residences | Jul-17 | Dec-19 | 842 |
66 | Rivercove Residences | Jun-18 | Oct-20 | 971 |
67 | Piermont Grand | Jul-19 | 1101 | |
68 | Parc Canberra | Feb-20 | 1104 | |
69 | Ola | Feb-20 | 1137 | |
70 | Parc Central Residences | Feb-21 | 1177 | |
71 | Provence Residence | May-21 | 1142 | |
72 | Parc Greenwich | Jul-21 | 1000 |
The next table illustrates the Top 20 best performing EC projects based on the below methodology:
- Use average launch prices as the denominator
- Use the latest “Highest” price achieved for the project to calculate the price appreciation from launch which is more representative of today’s hot property market in Singapore
- Calculate the CAGR based on the relevant time horizon (since launched)
Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #1
Executive Condo | Years from launch | Ave Launch price (psf) | Current High Price (psf) | CAGR (%) – High | |
1 | Rivercove Residences | 3.1 | 971 | 1193 | 6.8% |
2 | Sol Acres | 6.0 | 787 | 1159 | 6.7% |
3 | Bishan Loft | 20.0 | 408 | 1251 | 5.7% |
4 | Wandervale | 5.4 | 765 | 1025 | 5.6% |
5 | The Topiary | 8.6 | 735 | 1161 | 5.4% |
6 | Northwave | 5.0 | 746 | 973 | 5.4% |
7 | Parc Life | 5.3 | 785 | 1035 | 5.4% |
8 | INZ Residence | 4.4 | 774 | 969 | 5.3% |
9 | The Tampines Trilliant | 9.5 | 781 | 1237 | 4.9% |
10 | The Brownstone | 6.0 | 814 | 1089 | 4.9% |
11 | Waterbay | 8.7 | 755 | 1145 | 4.9% |
12 | The visionaire | 5.3 | 815 | 1047 | 4.9% |
13 | Citylife @ Tampines | 8.5 | 796 | 1186 | 4.8% |
14 | La Casa | 16.2 | 382 | 810 | 4.7% |
15 | Nuovo | 19.7 | 394 | 979 | 4.7% |
16 | Prive | 10.5 | 691 | 1109 | 4.6% |
17 | The Dew | 20.2 | 377 | 922 | 4.5% |
18 | The Quintet | 17.8 | 370 | 807 | 4.5% |
19 | Esparina Residences | 10.8 | 767 | 1219 | 4.4% |
20 | The Rainforest | 9.5 | 745 | 1117 | 4.4% |
Many of the top-performing ECs in this list consists of new projects where the CAGR since launched is more than 5%. This goes to show that if you can purchase a new EC at its average launch price, you will see the greatest appreciation potential before the 5-year mark.
However, this is a period where one is theoretically not able to sell their units (have not reach MOP mark), hence, the price transacted (likely new purchases made from the developer) might not be reflective of the actual scenario when the buyers of this new EC units can finally sell their house upon MOP (5-year mark).
Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #2
Excluding projects which have yet to hit their 5-year MOP mark, the best EC was Bishan Loft, a development that was launched 20 years ago and generated a CAGR of 5.7% during the last 2 decades, a formidable feat indeed.
The best performing EC which just hit their MOP mark is The Topiary which is pretty surprising, considering this project is in Fernvale (Seng Kang) and does not have direct access to the MRT and is also a substantial distance to the nearest Fernvale LRT.
Other similar projects such as Waterbay and The Trilliant are all recently MOP projects with a CAGR above 4.5%.
This seems to imply that the CAGR is typically the highest in the first 5 years of an EC, thereafter, the appreciation rate will start to taper (and potentially spike up again from the 10-year mark where the EC achieves full privatization status)
Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #3
Executive Condo | Years from launch | Ave Launch price (psf) | Current Ave Price (psf) | |
1 | Wandervale | 5.4 | 765 | 1025 |
2 | Bishan Loft | 20.0 | 408 | 1190 |
3 | Northwave | 5.0 | 746 | 973 |
4 | Rivercove Residences | 3.1 | 971 | 1144 |
5 | INZ Residence | 4.4 | 774 | 969 |
6 | Sol Acres | 6.0 | 787 | 1021 |
7 | Parc Life | 5.3 | 785 | 988 |
8 | The Dew | 20.2 | 377 | 890 |
9 | Nuovo | 19.7 | 394 | 901 |
10 | La Casa | 16.2 | 382 | 748 |
11 | The Quintet | 17.8 | 370 | 752 |
12 | The visionaire | 5.3 | 815 | 999 |
13 | Esparina Residences | 10.8 | 767 | 1158 |
14 | The Topiary | 8.6 | 735 | 1020 |
15 | Park Green | 18.9 | 388 | 790 |
16 | Signature at Yishun | 5.9 | 772 | 962 |
17 | Whitewater | 18.6 | 364 | 731 |
18 | Citylife @ Tampines | 8.5 | 796 | 1087 |
19 | The Vales | 6.0 | 789 | 977 |
20 | The Esparis | 19.0 | 393 | 767 |
Instead of using the “highest” transaction price, which is pretty representative of today’s hot property market, I use the latest “average” transaction price instead to do the sorting.
There are not many changes to this list although the older projects (such as The Dew, Nuovo, La Casa, etc) are now mostly ranked higher than in the previous list.
When comparing average launch prices vs. the current average selling price, the CAGR increment is more moderate, which goes without saying, but might not be representative of the true nature in today’s hot property market where everyone is looking to sell higher than the last transacted price.
Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #4
There are almost no “loss-making” projects (except Hundred Palms) if one’s horizon is long enough as can be seen from this list of the worst-performing EC in Singapore, with the dubious honor of worst performer going to Hundred Pams (slightly loss-making but lack track record since this project is newly completed) followed by Chestervale which was launched back in 1999.
Chestervale’s CAGR over this period is +1.7% when comparing the launch price against the current average selling price which is still “profitable”. However, if one includes the associated finance cost, using a longer-term average of 2.5-3% interest cost, then the project might not be a profitable one at the end of the day, assuming a purchase from Day 1.
Executive Condo | Years from launch | Ave Launch price (psf) | Current Ave Price (psf) | CAGR (%) – Ave | |
1 | Wandervale | 5.4 | 765 | 1025 | 5.6% |
2 | Bishan Loft | 20.0 | 408 | 1190 | 5.5% |
3 | Northwave | 5.0 | 746 | 973 | 5.4% |
4 | Rivercove Residences | 3.1 | 971 | 1144 | 5.4% |
5 | INZ Residence | 4.4 | 774 | 969 | 5.3% |
6 | Sol Acres | 6.0 | 787 | 1021 | 4.5% |
7 | Parc Life | 5.3 | 785 | 988 | 4.4% |
8 | The Dew | 20.2 | 377 | 890 | 4.3% |
9 | Nuovo | 19.7 | 394 | 901 | 4.3% |
10 | La Casa | 16.2 | 382 | 748 | 4.2% |
11 | The Quintet | 17.8 | 370 | 752 | 4.1% |
12 | The visionaire | 5.3 | 815 | 999 | 3.9% |
13 | Esparina Residences | 10.8 | 767 | 1158 | 3.9% |
14 | The Topiary | 8.6 | 735 | 1020 | 3.9% |
15 | Park Green | 18.9 | 388 | 790 | 3.8% |
16 | Signature at Yishun | 5.9 | 772 | 962 | 3.8% |
17 | Whitewater | 18.6 | 364 | 731 | 3.8% |
18 | Citylife @ Tampines | 8.5 | 796 | 1087 | 3.8% |
19 | The Vales | 6.0 | 789 | 977 | 3.6% |
20 | The Esparis | 19.0 | 393 | 767 | 3.6% |
21 | Prive | 10.5 | 691 | 995 | 3.5% |
22 | The Brownstone | 6.0 | 814 | 1003 | 3.5% |
23 | The Terrace | 6.6 | 812 | 1017 | 3.5% |
24 | The Tampines Trilliant | 9.5 | 781 | 1080 | 3.5% |
25 | Lilydale | 19.6 | 353 | 683 | 3.4% |
26 | The Rainforest | 9.5 | 745 | 1017 | 3.3% |
27 | Belysa | 10.1 | 661 | 920 | 3.3% |
28 | Twin Waterfalls | 9.4 | 730 | 986 | 3.3% |
29 | Westmere | 24.9 | 401 | 867 | 3.1% |
30 | The Eden at Tampines | 20.2 | 428 | 791 | 3.1% |
31 | Waterbay | 8.7 | 755 | 979 | 3.0% |
32 | The Criterion | 5.8 | 796 | 944 | 3.0% |
33 | Heron Bay | 8.8 | 736 | 949 | 2.9% |
34 | The Floravale | 22.3 | 359 | 683 | 2.9% |
35 | 1 Canberra | 9.1 | 705 | 913 | 2.9% |
36 | Skypark Residences | 7.7 | 796 | 989 | 2.9% |
37 | BelleWaters | 6.6 | 817 | 983 | 2.8% |
38 | Waterwoods | 7.7 | 800 | 990 | 2.8% |
39 | Westwood Residences | 6.2 | 803 | 953 | 2.8% |
40 | The Amore | 6.5 | 800 | 957 | 2.8% |
41 | Blossom Residences | 10.0 | 685 | 901 | 2.8% |
42 | Simei Green Condo Pinevale | 24.4 | 402 | 781 | 2.8% |
43 | RiverParc Residence | 10.0 | 681 | 890 | 2.7% |
44 | Woodsvale | 23.0 | 354 | 640 | 2.6% |
45 | Windermere | 24.1 | 357 | 663 | 2.6% |
46 | Twin Fountains | 8.2 | 743 | 917 | 2.6% |
47 | Northoaks | 23.1 | 360 | 644 | 2.6% |
48 | Arc at tampines | 9.8 | 736 | 931 | 2.4% |
49 | Austville Residences | 10.5 | 728 | 931 | 2.4% |
50 | Lush Acres | 7.9 | 792 | 951 | 2.4% |
51 | Eastvale | 24.9 | 406 | 720 | 2.3% |
52 | Ecopolitan | 7.9 | 792 | 948 | 2.3% |
53 | Lake Life | 6.7 | 872 | 1015 | 2.3% |
54 | Yew Mei Green | 23.4 | 427 | 712 | 2.2% |
55 | The Florida | 23.1 | 441 | 731 | 2.2% |
56 | Forestville | 8.0 | 729 | 866 | 2.2% |
57 | The Canopy | 10.7 | 651 | 818 | 2.2% |
58 | Watercolours | 9.1 | 728 | 879 | 2.1% |
59 | Pinevale | 23.9 | 459 | 730 | 2.0% |
60 | Sea Horizon | 7.9 | 813 | 940 | 1.9% |
61 | Summerdale | 23.2 | 441 | 673 | 1.8% |
62 | The Rivervale | 23.2 | 472 | 715 | 1.8% |
63 | Bellewoods | 6.6 | 799 | 899 | 1.8% |
64 | Chestervale | 23.9 | 455 | 688 | 1.7% |
65 | Hundred Palms Residences | 4.0 | 842 | 810 | -1.0% |
Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #5
Next up, I wish to find EC projects that witnessed the largest price appreciation over the PAST 1-YEAR. Which are the best performing ECs in Singapore over a 1-year horizon.
First, I used the projects’ average prices as of 2 June 2020 (from stackedhomes) and compare them against the latest average prices.
The best performing EC over a 1-year horizon is Simei Green Condo which is one of the pioneers ECs completed back in 1999. It saw a 1-year price appreciation of 26% which blows away the competition. This could either be a result of limited transactions skewing the data or buyers speculating on en-bloc potential?
Executive Condo | Years from launch | Current Ave Price (psf) | Ave price as of 2 June 2020 (psf) | CAGR (%) – Ave | |
1 | Simei Green Condo Pinevale | 24.4 | 781 | 602 | 26.3% |
2 | Skypark Residences | 7.7 | 989 | 806 | 20.1% |
3 | BelleWaters | 6.6 | 983 | 808 | 19.2% |
4 | The Amore | 6.5 | 957 | 819 | 15.0% |
5 | Forestville | 8.0 | 866 | 744 | 14.6% |
6 | Waterwoods | 7.7 | 990 | 859 | 13.6% |
7 | The Terrace | 6.6 | 1017 | 884 | 13.4% |
8 | Sea Horizon | 7.9 | 940 | 831 | 11.7% |
9 | Esparina Residences | 10.8 | 1158 | 1027 | 11.4% |
10 | The Topiary | 8.6 | 1020 | 911 | 10.7% |
11 | Citylife @ Tampines | 8.5 | 1087 | 976 | 10.1% |
12 | Northoaks | 23.1 | 644 | 585 | 9.0% |
13 | Bellewoods | 6.6 | 899 | 821 | 8.5% |
14 | The Florida | 23.1 | 731 | 668 | 8.4% |
15 | Yew Mei Green | 23.4 | 712 | 652 | 8.2% |
16 | Chestervale | 23.9 | 688 | 635 | 7.5% |
17 | Westmere | 24.9 | 867 | 807 | 6.6% |
18 | Windermere | 24.1 | 663 | 618 | 6.5% |
19 | Lilydale | 19.6 | 683 | 639 | 6.2% |
20 | Woodsvale | 23.0 | 640 | 599 | 6.1% |
The other projects which saw the greatest price appreciation over the past 1-year are those in the 4+/5+ years mark which are hitting their 5-year MOP period soon or have just hit the MOP mark. Those projects saw 1-year appreciation rate in the high teens.
This might imply that projects that are soon to be MOP, ie, buyers can now sell them could see higher interests from potential speculators looking to make a quick flip when the project reaches the 5-year MOP mark although profit potential might be partially curtailed by the seller stamp duties in place.
Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #6
Instead of using the latest average prices, I use the highest transacted price which might be more representative of the current climate to find out what might be the current scenario for the best performing EC over the past 1-year.
Executive Condo | Years from launch | Current High Price (psf) | Ave price as of 2 June 2020 (psf) | CAGR (%) – High | |
1 | Simei Green Condo Pinevale | 24.4 | 844 | 602 | 35.4% |
2 | The Topiary | 8.6 | 1161 | 911 | 24.3% |
3 | Yew Mei Green | 23.4 | 829 | 652 | 24.0% |
4 | Forestville | 8.0 | 936 | 744 | 22.9% |
5 | BelleWaters | 6.6 | 998 | 808 | 20.9% |
6 | The Amore | 6.5 | 1008 | 819 | 20.5% |
7 | Skypark Residences | 7.7 | 989 | 806 | 20.1% |
8 | Waterwoods | 7.7 | 1047 | 859 | 19.4% |
9 | Citylife @ Tampines | 8.5 | 1186 | 976 | 19.1% |
10 | Eastvale | 24.9 | 815 | 679 | 17.8% |
11 | Waterbay | 8.7 | 1145 | 955 | 17.7% |
12 | The Florida | 23.1 | 800 | 668 | 17.6% |
13 | Esparina Residences | 10.8 | 1219 | 1027 | 16.6% |
14 | Blossom Residences | 10.0 | 1046 | 887 | 15.9% |
15 | The Tampines Trilliant | 9.5 | 1237 | 1049 | 15.9% |
16 | Northoaks | 23.1 | 687 | 585 | 15.5% |
17 | Sea Horizon | 7.9 | 973 | 831 | 15.2% |
18 | Bellewoods | 6.6 | 961 | 821 | 15.2% |
19 | The Floravale | 22.3 | 758 | 652 | 14.5% |
20 | The Rainforest | 9.5 | 1117 | 965 | 14.0% |
Simei Green remains the top-performing EC in the list. However, the Topiary has shot up to #2 in this list from #10 previously. Another oldie, Yew Mei Green takes the #3 spot while other names in this list are similar projects that have recently or going to achieve MOP status pretty soon.
Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #7
The only project that is hitting the full privatization status (ie: 10-years to completion) in this list is Esparina Residences, which despite appreciating by close to 17% from last year’s average price to the current “High Price”, is only ranked at #13 in this list.
Other soon to be privatized projects such as Prive (#40), Austville Residences (#30), and The Canopy (#47) are all pretty lowly ranked in terms of the past 1-year appreciation, which might imply that the full privatization effect (10-year mark) is not as important or it might not yet be evident.
Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #8
Not all EC projects hitting their MOP mark has faired well, with both Ecopolitan and Lake Life being one of the worst-performing projects over a 1-year horizon, based on existing data.
Executive Condo | Years from launch | Current High Price (psf) | Ave price as of 2 June 2020 (psf) | CAGR (%) – High | |
42 | The Dew | 20.2 | 922 | 852 | 7.3% |
43 | The Esparis | 19.0 | 820 | 759 | 7.2% |
44 | The Quintet | 17.8 | 807 | 747 | 7.2% |
45 | Bishan Loft | 20.0 | 1251 | 1170 | 6.2% |
46 | The Rivervale | 23.2 | 765 | 723 | 5.2% |
47 | The Canopy | 10.7 | 869 | 825 | 4.8% |
48 | Pinevale | 23.9 | 761 | 723 | 4.7% |
49 | Lush Acres | 7.9 | 1000 | 951 | 4.6% |
50 | Summerdale | 23.2 | 720 | 693 | 3.5% |
51 | Ecopolitan | 7.9 | 948 | 978 | -2.8% |
52 | Lake Life | 6.7 | 1015 | 1100 | -7.0% |
Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #9
Some projects with a huge variation between the appreciation rate using the “high price” vs. “average price” might be due to limited transactions and hence the data might not be fully representative of the current scenario.
Executive Condo | Years from launch | CAGR (%) – Ave | CAGR (%) – High | Variation | |
1 | Simei Green Condo Pinevale | 24.4 | 26.3% | 35.4% | 9.1% |
2 | The Topiary | 8.6 | 10.7% | 24.3% | 13.6% |
3 | Yew Mei Green | 23.4 | 8.2% | 24.0% | 15.8% |
4 | Forestville | 8.0 | 14.6% | 22.9% | 8.3% |
5 | BelleWaters | 6.6 | 19.2% | 20.9% | 1.6% |
6 | The Amore | 6.5 | 15.0% | 20.5% | 5.5% |
7 | Skypark Residences | 7.7 | 20.1% | 20.1% | 0.0% |
8 | Waterwoods | 7.7 | 13.6% | 19.4% | 5.8% |
9 | Citylife @ Tampines | 8.5 | 10.1% | 19.1% | 9.0% |
10 | Eastvale | 24.9 | 5.4% | 17.8% | 12.4% |
11 | Waterbay | 8.7 | 2.3% | 17.7% | 15.4% |
12 | The Florida | 23.1 | 8.4% | 17.6% | 9.1% |
13 | Esparina Residences | 10.8 | 11.4% | 16.6% | 5.2% |
14 | Blossom Residences | 10.0 | 1.4% | 15.9% | 14.5% |
15 | The Tampines Trilliant | 9.5 | 2.6% | 15.9% | 13.3% |
16 | Northoaks | 23.1 | 9.0% | 15.5% | 6.5% |
17 | Sea Horizon | 7.9 | 11.7% | 15.2% | 3.5% |
18 | Bellewoods | 6.6 | 8.5% | 15.2% | 6.7% |
19 | The Floravale | 22.3 | 4.3% | 14.5% | 10.2% |
20 | The Rainforest | 9.5 | 4.8% | 14.0% | 9.2% |
For example, Topiary has a c.14% gap between the two, and Yew Mei Green has a 16% gap. Other notable younger projects with a huge gap include Waterbay, Blossom Residences, and The Tampines Trilliant.
More investigation would be required to see if the disparity is due to the skew between the low and high prices. If the majority of recent transactions are indeed completed at the “high price” mark, then using the highest price figure will be more representative of the current environment as well as for future projection.
A quick check on PropertyGuru shows that recent Topiary properties are mostly transacted below the $1,100 high mark. Hence, while listings are being advertised at the $1,200 level, those transactions might see difficulty in completion. In this case, it will be better to use the average price for Topiary properties.
Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #10
For projects where the disparity gap between Average price and Highest price is small (which is typical of projects before MOP), this could be due to the lack of significant transactions.
For example, Skypark Residences, a project that just reaches MOP status saw a zero gap between the average and highest transaction prices. However, this is because of the limited number of completed transactions of late where there was only 1 completed transaction in 2021 at the high price of $989/psf.
Nonetheless, almost all listings for this project are now listed at above $1,000/psf which implies that the actual CAGR for Skypark will be higher than the current c.20% over a 1-year horizon.
Conclusion
This simple exercise yields several conclusions.
When comparing the project’s CAGR since launch, typically new projects which have yet to MOP will see the greatest price appreciation. This is not unusual given that the entry price is usually lower at launch.
Bishan Loft is undoubtedly the best EC project since its launch, with a CAGR of 5.5%. Other old projects such as The Dew, Nuovo, La Casa, and The Quintet also fairs pretty reasonably in terms of growth potential since launch.
These projects have outshined some of the newer projects which have MOP (between 5 years and 10 years since completion) such as Esparina, Prive, Belysa, etc. Whether the tide will turn when this group of projects hit full privatization status might still be up for debate.
The 3 best performing ECs which have MOP but yet to hit privatization status are Esparina, Topiary, and Citylife@Tampines. These 3 projects have decent CAGR growth rate since project launch and the past 1-year price appreciation rate has also been very robust.
Based on my observation, EC projects that can garner a consistent CAGR of 4% since launch is considered very good. The growth rate needs to be accelerated in the first 5-years upon completion.
The highest growth rate seems to be when the project is between 3-5 years upon completion.
Thereafter, the growth rate will typically slow down and other factors (area re-development, etc) might be required to further boost the project’s appreciation rate.
Some older projects have seen renewed interest over the past 1 year which might be more speculative? En-bloc wave again perhaps?
There is no conclusive evidence based on the data that projects almost hitting full privatization status will witness increasing price appreciation. The most relevant project concerning this is Prive and Esparina, with the former witnessing a decline in average selling prices over a 1-year horizon while the latter generating strong appreciation, likely because Sengkang Grand Integrated Development will be ready over the next few years.
If history is to repeat itself, then the latest EC offering, Parc Greenwich might also surprise positively on the upside in terms of future appreciation. Despite the relatively “ulu” location, The Topiary (which is situated next to Parc Greenwich) has done very well in terms of price appreciation, to my surprise. The project’s low launch price could be one major factor.
In the same context, Parc Greenwich, if it is indeed launched at approx. $1,000/psf, will be > 10% cheaper than ECs launched in the past couple of years. That could be one major factor in the project’s outperformance over the next decade.
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Disclosure: The accuracy of the material found in this article cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is not an assurance of future results. This article is not to be construed as a recommendation to Buy or Sell any shares or derivative products and is solely for reference only