executive condo singapore

Executive Condo Singapore: Which is the best performing ECs of all time?

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Executive Condo Singapore

The first EC launch in Singapore was the Eastvale project back in 1999 at an average price of $406/psf. Since then, new EC prices have risen significantly and are currently at about $1,100+/psf for new launches in 2021.

There is no doubt that ECs are getting increasingly expensive. For EC projects completed in 2008, their average launch prices were about $380. That doubled for those projects that were completed in 2013, with prices rising to about $690-770/psf.

Prices increased at a more moderate pace for EC projects completed in 2018-2019, with their launch prices at about $750-800/psf range. Since then, EC launched prices have crept up to the $1,100/psf level.

In this article, we look to do a quick analysis of the EC market to find out which is the best performing EC projects of all time as well as over the past 1-year.

Some interesting conclusions can be found from this article.

Best performing EC in Singapore

The table below shows the full list of 72 EC projects from 1999 onwards to the latest project which has yet to be launched, Parc Greenwich, where the tentative launch price is rumored to be set at $1,000/psf which is a discount to recently launched projects that were launched at an average of $1,100+/psf.

 Executive CondoLaunchedCompletionAve Launch price (psf)
1EastvaleSep-96Jan-99406
2WestmereSep-96Feb-99401
3ChestervaleSep-97Mar-99455
4Simei Green Condo PinevaleMar-97Apr-99402
5PinevaleSep-97Jul-99459
6WindermereJun-97Sep-99357
7The FloridaJun-98Feb-00441
8The RivervaleMay-98Jun-00472
9WoodsvaleAug-98Aug-00354
10Yew Mei GreenMar-98Sep-00427
11SummerdaleMay-98Sep-00441
12The FloravaleApr-99Oct-00359
13NorthoaksJul-98Oct-00360
14LilydaleDec-01Mar-03353
15The Eden at TampinesMay-01Apr-03428
16The DewMay-01Jul-03377
17Bishan LoftJul-01Sep-03408
18NuovoNov-01Aug-04394
19Park GreenSep-02Sep-04388
20WhitewaterDec-02Jan-05364
21The EsparisAug-02Jun-05393
22The QuintetOct-03Oct-06370
23La CasaMay-05Feb-08382
24PriveJan-11Jul-13691
25Esparina ResidencesOct-10Sep-13767
26The CanopyNov-10Jan-14651
27Austville ResidencesJan-11Apr-14728
28BelysaJun-11May-14661
29RiverParc ResidenceJul-11Jun-14681
30Arc at tampinesOct-11Aug-14736
31Blossom ResidencesJul-11Sep-14685
32WatercoloursJun-12Dec-14728
33The Tampines TrilliantJan-12Feb-15781
34The RainforestFeb-12Mar-15745
35Twin WaterfallsMar-12Jun-15730
361 CanberraJun-12Sep-15705
37Heron BayOct-12Oct-15736
38WaterwoodsNov-13Dec-15800
39WaterbayNov-12Jan-16755
40Citylife @ TampinesFeb-13Feb-16796
41The TopiaryDec-12Mar-16735
42Twin FountainsMay-13Mar-16743
43ForestvilleJul-13Apr-16729
44Lush AcresSep-13Jun-16792
45EcopolitanSep-13Aug-16792
46Sea HorizonSep-13Oct-16813
47Skypark ResidencesNov-13Aug-16796
48Lake LifeNov-14Dec-16872
49BellewoodsDec-14Mar-17799
50BelleWatersDec-14May-17817
51The TerraceDec-14May-17812
52The AmoreJan-15Nov-16800
53Westwood ResidencesMay-15Oct-17803
54The ValesJul-15May-17789
55The BrownstoneJul-15Oct-17814
56Sol AcresAug-15Apr-18787
57Signature at YishunSep-15Jul-17772
58The CriterionOct-15Feb-18796
59WandervaleMar-16Mar-18765
60The visionaireApr-16Jun-18815
61Parc LifeApr-16Mar-18785
62NorthwaveJul-16Feb-19746
63Treasure CrestJul-16Sep-18747
64INZ ResidenceMar-17Apr-19774
65Hundred Palms ResidencesJul-17Dec-19842
66Rivercove ResidencesJun-18Oct-20971
67Piermont GrandJul-19 1101
68Parc CanberraFeb-20 1104
69OlaFeb-20 1137
70Parc Central ResidencesFeb-21 1177
71Provence ResidenceMay-21 1142
72Parc GreenwichJul-21 1000

The next table illustrates the Top 20 best performing EC projects based on the below methodology:

  1. Use average launch prices as the denominator
  2. Use the latest “Highest” price achieved for the project to calculate the price appreciation from launch which is more representative of today’s hot property market in Singapore
  3. Calculate the CAGR based on the relevant time horizon (since launched)

Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #1

 Executive CondoYears from launchAve Launch price (psf)Current High Price (psf)CAGR (%) – High
1Rivercove Residences3.197111936.8%
2Sol Acres6.078711596.7%
3Bishan Loft20.040812515.7%
4Wandervale5.476510255.6%
5The Topiary8.673511615.4%
6Northwave5.07469735.4%
7Parc Life5.378510355.4%
8INZ Residence4.47749695.3%
9The Tampines Trilliant9.578112374.9%
10The Brownstone6.081410894.9%
11Waterbay8.775511454.9%
12The visionaire5.381510474.9%
13Citylife @ Tampines8.579611864.8%
14La Casa16.23828104.7%
15Nuovo19.73949794.7%
16Prive10.569111094.6%
17The Dew20.23779224.5%
18The Quintet17.83708074.5%
19Esparina Residences10.876712194.4%
20The Rainforest9.574511174.4%

Many of the top-performing ECs in this list consists of new projects where the CAGR since launched is more than 5%. This goes to show that if you can purchase a new EC at its average launch price, you will see the greatest appreciation potential before the 5-year mark.

However, this is a period where one is theoretically not able to sell their units (have not reach MOP mark), hence, the price transacted (likely new purchases made from the developer) might not be reflective of the actual scenario when the buyers of this new EC units can finally sell their house upon MOP (5-year mark).

Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #2

Excluding projects which have yet to hit their 5-year MOP mark, the best EC was Bishan Loft, a development that was launched 20 years ago and generated a CAGR of 5.7% during the last 2 decades, a formidable feat indeed. 

The best performing EC which just hit their MOP mark is The Topiary which is pretty surprising, considering this project is in Fernvale (Seng Kang) and does not have direct access to the MRT and is also a substantial distance to the nearest Fernvale LRT. 

Other similar projects such as Waterbay and The Trilliant are all recently MOP projects with a CAGR above 4.5%. 

This seems to imply that the CAGR is typically the highest in the first 5 years of an EC, thereafter, the appreciation rate will start to taper (and potentially spike up again from the 10-year mark where the EC achieves full privatization status)

Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #3

 Executive CondoYears from launchAve Launch price (psf)Current Ave Price (psf)
1Wandervale5.47651025
2Bishan Loft20.04081190
3Northwave5.0746973
4Rivercove Residences3.19711144
5INZ Residence4.4774969
6Sol Acres6.07871021
7Parc Life5.3785988
8The Dew20.2377890
9Nuovo19.7394901
10La Casa16.2382748
11The Quintet17.8370752
12The visionaire5.3815999
13Esparina Residences10.87671158
14The Topiary8.67351020
15Park Green18.9388790
16Signature at Yishun5.9772962
17Whitewater18.6364731
18Citylife @ Tampines8.57961087
19The Vales6.0789977
20The Esparis19.0393767

Instead of using the “highest” transaction price, which is pretty representative of today’s hot property market, I use the latest “average” transaction price instead to do the sorting.

There are not many changes to this list although the older projects (such as The Dew, Nuovo, La Casa, etc) are now mostly ranked higher than in the previous list.

When comparing average launch prices vs. the current average selling price, the CAGR increment is more moderate, which goes without saying, but might not be representative of the true nature in today’s hot property market where everyone is looking to sell higher than the last transacted price.

Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #4

There are almost no “loss-making” projects (except Hundred Palms) if one’s horizon is long enough as can be seen from this list of the worst-performing EC in Singapore, with the dubious honor of worst performer going to Hundred Pams (slightly loss-making but lack track record since this project is newly completed) followed by Chestervale which was launched back in 1999.

Chestervale’s CAGR over this period is +1.7% when comparing the launch price against the current average selling price which is still “profitable”. However, if one includes the associated finance cost, using a longer-term average of 2.5-3% interest cost, then the project might not be a profitable one at the end of the day, assuming a purchase from Day 1.

 Executive CondoYears from launchAve Launch price (psf)Current Ave Price (psf)CAGR (%) – Ave
1Wandervale5.476510255.6%
2Bishan Loft20.040811905.5%
3Northwave5.07469735.4%
4Rivercove Residences3.197111445.4%
5INZ Residence4.47749695.3%
6Sol Acres6.078710214.5%
7Parc Life5.37859884.4%
8The Dew20.23778904.3%
9Nuovo19.73949014.3%
10La Casa16.23827484.2%
11The Quintet17.83707524.1%
12The visionaire5.38159993.9%
13Esparina Residences10.876711583.9%
14The Topiary8.673510203.9%
15Park Green18.93887903.8%
16Signature at Yishun5.97729623.8%
17Whitewater18.63647313.8%
18Citylife @ Tampines8.579610873.8%
19The Vales6.07899773.6%
20The Esparis19.03937673.6%
21Prive10.56919953.5%
22The Brownstone6.081410033.5%
23The Terrace6.681210173.5%
24The Tampines Trilliant9.578110803.5%
25Lilydale19.63536833.4%
26The Rainforest9.574510173.3%
27Belysa10.16619203.3%
28Twin Waterfalls9.47309863.3%
29Westmere24.94018673.1%
30The Eden at Tampines20.24287913.1%
31Waterbay8.77559793.0%
32The Criterion5.87969443.0%
33Heron Bay8.87369492.9%
34The Floravale22.33596832.9%
351 Canberra9.17059132.9%
36Skypark Residences7.77969892.9%
37BelleWaters6.68179832.8%
38Waterwoods7.78009902.8%
39Westwood Residences6.28039532.8%
40The Amore6.58009572.8%
41Blossom Residences10.06859012.8%
42Simei Green Condo Pinevale24.44027812.8%
43RiverParc Residence10.06818902.7%
44Woodsvale23.03546402.6%
45Windermere24.13576632.6%
46Twin Fountains8.27439172.6%
47Northoaks23.13606442.6%
48Arc at tampines9.87369312.4%
49Austville Residences10.57289312.4%
50Lush Acres7.97929512.4%
51Eastvale24.94067202.3%
52Ecopolitan7.97929482.3%
53Lake Life6.787210152.3%
54Yew Mei Green23.44277122.2%
55The Florida23.14417312.2%
56Forestville8.07298662.2%
57The Canopy10.76518182.2%
58Watercolours9.17288792.1%
59Pinevale23.94597302.0%
60Sea Horizon7.98139401.9%
61Summerdale23.24416731.8%
62The Rivervale23.24727151.8%
63Bellewoods6.67998991.8%
64Chestervale23.94556881.7%
65Hundred Palms Residences4.0842810-1.0%

Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #5

Next up, I wish to find EC projects that witnessed the largest price appreciation over the PAST 1-YEAR. Which are the best performing ECs in Singapore over a 1-year horizon.

First, I used the projects’ average prices as of 2 June 2020 (from stackedhomes) and compare them against the latest average prices.

The best performing EC over a 1-year horizon is Simei Green Condo which is one of the pioneers ECs completed back in 1999. It saw a 1-year price appreciation of 26% which blows away the competition. This could either be a result of limited transactions skewing the data or buyers speculating on en-bloc potential?

 Executive CondoYears from launchCurrent Ave Price (psf)Ave price as of 2 June 2020 (psf)CAGR (%) – Ave
1Simei Green Condo Pinevale24.478160226.3%
2Skypark Residences7.798980620.1%
3BelleWaters6.698380819.2%
4The Amore6.595781915.0%
5Forestville8.086674414.6%
6Waterwoods7.799085913.6%
7The Terrace6.6101788413.4%
8Sea Horizon7.994083111.7%
9Esparina Residences10.81158102711.4%
10The Topiary8.6102091110.7%
11Citylife @ Tampines8.5108797610.1%
12Northoaks23.16445859.0%
13Bellewoods6.68998218.5%
14The Florida23.17316688.4%
15Yew Mei Green23.47126528.2%
16Chestervale23.96886357.5%
17Westmere24.98678076.6%
18Windermere24.16636186.5%
19Lilydale19.66836396.2%
20Woodsvale23.06405996.1%

The other projects which saw the greatest price appreciation over the past 1-year are those in the 4+/5+ years mark which are hitting their 5-year MOP period soon or have just hit the MOP mark. Those projects saw 1-year appreciation rate in the high teens.

This might imply that projects that are soon to be MOP, ie, buyers can now sell them could see higher interests from potential speculators looking to make a quick flip when the project reaches the 5-year MOP mark although profit potential might be partially curtailed by the seller stamp duties in place.  

Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #6

Instead of using the latest average prices, I use the highest transacted price which might be more representative of the current climate to find out what might be the current scenario for the best performing EC over the past 1-year.

 Executive CondoYears from launchCurrent High Price (psf)Ave price as of 2 June 2020 (psf)CAGR (%) – High
1Simei Green Condo Pinevale24.484460235.4%
2The Topiary8.6116191124.3%
3Yew Mei Green23.482965224.0%
4Forestville8.093674422.9%
5BelleWaters6.699880820.9%
6The Amore6.5100881920.5%
7Skypark Residences7.798980620.1%
8Waterwoods7.7104785919.4%
9Citylife @ Tampines8.5118697619.1%
10Eastvale24.981567917.8%
11Waterbay8.7114595517.7%
12The Florida23.180066817.6%
13Esparina Residences10.81219102716.6%
14Blossom Residences10.0104688715.9%
15The Tampines Trilliant9.51237104915.9%
16Northoaks23.168758515.5%
17Sea Horizon7.997383115.2%
18Bellewoods6.696182115.2%
19The Floravale22.375865214.5%
20The Rainforest9.5111796514.0%

Simei Green remains the top-performing EC in the list. However, the Topiary has shot up to #2 in this list from #10 previously. Another oldie, Yew Mei Green takes the #3 spot while other names in this list are similar projects that have recently or going to achieve MOP status pretty soon.

Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #7

The only project that is hitting the full privatization status (ie: 10-years to completion) in this list is Esparina Residences, which despite appreciating by close to 17% from last year’s average price to the current “High Price”, is only ranked at #13 in this list.

Other soon to be privatized projects such as Prive (#40), Austville Residences (#30), and The Canopy (#47) are all pretty lowly ranked in terms of the past 1-year appreciation, which might imply that the full privatization effect (10-year mark) is not as important or it might not yet be evident.

Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #8

Not all EC projects hitting their MOP mark has faired well, with both Ecopolitan and Lake Life being one of the worst-performing projects over a 1-year horizon, based on existing data.

 Executive CondoYears from launchCurrent High Price (psf)Ave price as of 2 June 2020 (psf)CAGR (%) – High
42The Dew20.29228527.3%
43The Esparis19.08207597.2%
44The Quintet17.88077477.2%
45Bishan Loft20.0125111706.2%
46The Rivervale23.27657235.2%
47The Canopy10.78698254.8%
48Pinevale23.97617234.7%
49Lush Acres7.910009514.6%
50Summerdale23.27206933.5%
51Ecopolitan7.9948978-2.8%
52Lake Life6.710151100-7.0%
Bottom 10 ECs based on past year price appreciation

Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #9

Some projects with a huge variation between the appreciation rate using the “high price” vs. “average price” might be due to limited transactions and hence the data might not be fully representative of the current scenario.

 Executive CondoYears from launchCAGR (%) – AveCAGR (%) – HighVariation
1Simei Green Condo Pinevale24.426.3%35.4%9.1%
2The Topiary8.610.7%24.3%13.6%
3Yew Mei Green23.48.2%24.0%15.8%
4Forestville8.014.6%22.9%8.3%
5BelleWaters6.619.2%20.9%1.6%
6The Amore6.515.0%20.5%5.5%
7Skypark Residences7.720.1%20.1%0.0%
8Waterwoods7.713.6%19.4%5.8%
9Citylife @ Tampines8.510.1%19.1%9.0%
10Eastvale24.95.4%17.8%12.4%
11Waterbay8.72.3%17.7%15.4%
12The Florida23.18.4%17.6%9.1%
13Esparina Residences10.811.4%16.6%5.2%
14Blossom Residences10.01.4%15.9%14.5%
15The Tampines Trilliant9.52.6%15.9%13.3%
16Northoaks23.19.0%15.5%6.5%
17Sea Horizon7.911.7%15.2%3.5%
18Bellewoods6.68.5%15.2%6.7%
19The Floravale22.34.3%14.5%10.2%
20The Rainforest9.54.8%14.0%9.2%

For example, Topiary has a c.14% gap between the two, and Yew Mei Green has a 16% gap. Other notable younger projects with a huge gap include Waterbay, Blossom Residences, and The Tampines Trilliant.

More investigation would be required to see if the disparity is due to the skew between the low and high prices. If the majority of recent transactions are indeed completed at the “high price” mark, then using the highest price figure will be more representative of the current environment as well as for future projection.

A quick check on PropertyGuru shows that recent Topiary properties are mostly transacted below the $1,100 high mark. Hence, while listings are being advertised at the $1,200 level, those transactions might see difficulty in completion. In this case, it will be better to use the average price for Topiary properties.

Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #10

For projects where the disparity gap between Average price and Highest price is small (which is typical of projects before MOP), this could be due to the lack of significant transactions. 

For example, Skypark Residences, a project that just reaches MOP status saw a zero gap between the average and highest transaction prices. However, this is because of the limited number of completed transactions of late where there was only 1 completed transaction in 2021 at the high price of $989/psf.

Nonetheless, almost all listings for this project are now listed at above $1,000/psf which implies that the actual CAGR for Skypark will be higher than the current c.20% over a 1-year horizon.  

Conclusion

This simple exercise yields several conclusions.

When comparing the project’s CAGR since launch, typically new projects which have yet to MOP will see the greatest price appreciation. This is not unusual given that the entry price is usually lower at launch.

Bishan Loft is undoubtedly the best EC project since its launch, with a CAGR of 5.5%. Other old projects such as The Dew, Nuovo, La Casa, and The Quintet also fairs pretty reasonably in terms of growth potential since launch.

These projects have outshined some of the newer projects which have MOP (between 5 years and 10 years since completion) such as Esparina, Prive, Belysa, etc. Whether the tide will turn when this group of projects hit full privatization status might still be up for debate.

The 3 best performing ECs which have MOP but yet to hit privatization status are Esparina, Topiary, and Citylife@Tampines. These 3 projects have decent CAGR growth rate since project launch and the past 1-year price appreciation rate has also been very robust.

Based on my observation, EC projects that can garner a consistent CAGR of 4% since launch is considered very good. The growth rate needs to be accelerated in the first 5-years upon completion.

The highest growth rate seems to be when the project is between 3-5 years upon completion. 

Thereafter, the growth rate will typically slow down and other factors (area re-development, etc) might be required to further boost the project’s appreciation rate.

Some older projects have seen renewed interest over the past 1 year which might be more speculative? En-bloc wave again perhaps? 

There is no conclusive evidence based on the data that projects almost hitting full privatization status will witness increasing price appreciation. The most relevant project concerning this is Prive and Esparina, with the former witnessing a decline in average selling prices over a 1-year horizon while the latter generating strong appreciation, likely because Sengkang Grand Integrated Development will be ready over the next few years.

If history is to repeat itself, then the latest EC offering, Parc Greenwich might also surprise positively on the upside in terms of future appreciation. Despite the relatively “ulu” location, The Topiary (which is situated next to Parc Greenwich) has done very well in terms of price appreciation, to my surprise. The project’s low launch price could be one major factor.

In the same context, Parc Greenwich, if it is indeed launched at approx. $1,000/psf, will be > 10% cheaper than ECs launched in the past couple of years. That could be one major factor in the project’s outperformance over the next decade.

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Disclosure: The accuracy of the material found in this article cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is not an assurance of future results. This article is not to be construed as a recommendation to Buy or Sell any shares or derivative products and is solely for reference only

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