Executive Condo Singapore: Which is the best performing ECs of all time?

Executive Condo Singapore

The first EC launch in Singapore was the Eastvale project back in 1999 at an average price of $406/psf. Since then, new EC prices have risen significantly and are currently at about $1,100+/psf for new launches in 2021.

There is no doubt that ECs are getting increasingly expensive. For EC projects completed in 2008, their average launch prices were about $380. That doubled for those projects that were completed in 2013, with prices rising to about $690-770/psf.

Prices increased at a more moderate pace for EC projects completed in 2018-2019, with their launch prices at about $750-800/psf range. Since then, EC launched prices have crept up to the $1,100/psf level.

In this article, we look to do a quick analysis of the EC market to find out which is the best performing EC projects of all time as well as over the past 1-year.

Some interesting conclusions can be found from this article.

Best performing EC in Singapore

The table below shows the full list of 72 EC projects from 1999 onwards to the latest project which has yet to be launched, Parc Greenwich, where the tentative launch price is rumored to be set at $1,000/psf which is a discount to recently launched projects that were launched at an average of $1,100+/psf.

	Executive Condo	Launched	Completion	Ave Launch price (psf)
1	Eastvale	Sep-96	Jan-99	406
2	Westmere	Sep-96	Feb-99	401
3	Chestervale	Sep-97	Mar-99	455
4	Simei Green Condo Pinevale	Mar-97	Apr-99	402
5	Pinevale	Sep-97	Jul-99	459
6	Windermere	Jun-97	Sep-99	357
7	The Florida	Jun-98	Feb-00	441
8	The Rivervale	May-98	Jun-00	472
9	Woodsvale	Aug-98	Aug-00	354
10	Yew Mei Green	Mar-98	Sep-00	427
11	Summerdale	May-98	Sep-00	441
12	The Floravale	Apr-99	Oct-00	359
13	Northoaks	Jul-98	Oct-00	360
14	Lilydale	Dec-01	Mar-03	353
15	The Eden at Tampines	May-01	Apr-03	428
16	The Dew	May-01	Jul-03	377
17	Bishan Loft	Jul-01	Sep-03	408
18	Nuovo	Nov-01	Aug-04	394
19	Park Green	Sep-02	Sep-04	388
20	Whitewater	Dec-02	Jan-05	364
21	The Esparis	Aug-02	Jun-05	393
22	The Quintet	Oct-03	Oct-06	370
23	La Casa	May-05	Feb-08	382
24	Prive	Jan-11	Jul-13	691
25	Esparina Residences	Oct-10	Sep-13	767
26	The Canopy	Nov-10	Jan-14	651
27	Austville Residences	Jan-11	Apr-14	728
28	Belysa	Jun-11	May-14	661
29	RiverParc Residence	Jul-11	Jun-14	681
30	Arc at tampines	Oct-11	Aug-14	736
31	Blossom Residences	Jul-11	Sep-14	685
32	Watercolours	Jun-12	Dec-14	728
33	The Tampines Trilliant	Jan-12	Feb-15	781
34	The Rainforest	Feb-12	Mar-15	745
35	Twin Waterfalls	Mar-12	Jun-15	730
36	1 Canberra	Jun-12	Sep-15	705
37	Heron Bay	Oct-12	Oct-15	736
38	Waterwoods	Nov-13	Dec-15	800
39	Waterbay	Nov-12	Jan-16	755
40	Citylife @ Tampines	Feb-13	Feb-16	796
41	The Topiary	Dec-12	Mar-16	735
42	Twin Fountains	May-13	Mar-16	743
43	Forestville	Jul-13	Apr-16	729
44	Lush Acres	Sep-13	Jun-16	792
45	Ecopolitan	Sep-13	Aug-16	792
46	Sea Horizon	Sep-13	Oct-16	813
47	Skypark Residences	Nov-13	Aug-16	796
48	Lake Life	Nov-14	Dec-16	872
49	Bellewoods	Dec-14	Mar-17	799
50	BelleWaters	Dec-14	May-17	817
51	The Terrace	Dec-14	May-17	812
52	The Amore	Jan-15	Nov-16	800
53	Westwood Residences	May-15	Oct-17	803
54	The Vales	Jul-15	May-17	789
55	The Brownstone	Jul-15	Oct-17	814
56	Sol Acres	Aug-15	Apr-18	787
57	Signature at Yishun	Sep-15	Jul-17	772
58	The Criterion	Oct-15	Feb-18	796
59	Wandervale	Mar-16	Mar-18	765
60	The visionaire	Apr-16	Jun-18	815
61	Parc Life	Apr-16	Mar-18	785
62	Northwave	Jul-16	Feb-19	746
63	Treasure Crest	Jul-16	Sep-18	747
64	INZ Residence	Mar-17	Apr-19	774
65	Hundred Palms Residences	Jul-17	Dec-19	842
66	Rivercove Residences	Jun-18	Oct-20	971
67	Piermont Grand	Jul-19		1101
68	Parc Canberra	Feb-20		1104
69	Ola	Feb-20		1137
70	Parc Central Residences	Feb-21		1177
71	Provence Residence	May-21		1142
72	Parc Greenwich	Jul-21		1000

The next table illustrates the Top 20 best performing EC projects based on the below methodology:

1. Use average launch prices as the denominator
2. Use the latest “Highest” price achieved for the project to calculate the price appreciation from launch which is more representative of today’s hot property market in Singapore
3. Calculate the CAGR based on the relevant time horizon (since launched)

Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #1

	Executive Condo	Years from launch	Ave Launch price (psf)	Current High Price (psf)	CAGR (%) – High
1	Rivercove Residences	3.1	971	1193	6.8%
2	Sol Acres	6.0	787	1159	6.7%
3	Bishan Loft	20.0	408	1251	5.7%
4	Wandervale	5.4	765	1025	5.6%
5	The Topiary	8.6	735	1161	5.4%
6	Northwave	5.0	746	973	5.4%
7	Parc Life	5.3	785	1035	5.4%
8	INZ Residence	4.4	774	969	5.3%
9	The Tampines Trilliant	9.5	781	1237	4.9%
10	The Brownstone	6.0	814	1089	4.9%
11	Waterbay	8.7	755	1145	4.9%
12	The visionaire	5.3	815	1047	4.9%
13	Citylife @ Tampines	8.5	796	1186	4.8%
14	La Casa	16.2	382	810	4.7%
15	Nuovo	19.7	394	979	4.7%
16	Prive	10.5	691	1109	4.6%
17	The Dew	20.2	377	922	4.5%
18	The Quintet	17.8	370	807	4.5%
19	Esparina Residences	10.8	767	1219	4.4%
20	The Rainforest	9.5	745	1117	4.4%

Many of the top-performing ECs in this list consists of new projects where the CAGR since launched is more than 5%. This goes to show that if you can purchase a new EC at its average launch price, you will see the greatest appreciation potential before the 5-year mark.

However, this is a period where one is theoretically not able to sell their units (have not reach MOP mark), hence, the price transacted (likely new purchases made from the developer) might not be reflective of the actual scenario when the buyers of this new EC units can finally sell their house upon MOP (5-year mark).

Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #2

Excluding projects which have yet to hit their 5-year MOP mark, the best EC was Bishan Loft, a development that was launched 20 years ago and generated a CAGR of 5.7% during the last 2 decades, a formidable feat indeed. 

The best performing EC which just hit their MOP mark is The Topiary which is pretty surprising, considering this project is in Fernvale (Seng Kang) and does not have direct access to the MRT and is also a substantial distance to the nearest Fernvale LRT. 

Other similar projects such as Waterbay and The Trilliant are all recently MOP projects with a CAGR above 4.5%. 

This seems to imply that the CAGR is typically the highest in the first 5 years of an EC, thereafter, the appreciation rate will start to taper (and potentially spike up again from the 10-year mark where the EC achieves full privatization status)

Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #3

	Executive Condo	Years from launch	Ave Launch price (psf)	Current Ave Price (psf)
1	Wandervale	5.4	765	1025
2	Bishan Loft	20.0	408	1190
3	Northwave	5.0	746	973
4	Rivercove Residences	3.1	971	1144
5	INZ Residence	4.4	774	969
6	Sol Acres	6.0	787	1021
7	Parc Life	5.3	785	988
8	The Dew	20.2	377	890
9	Nuovo	19.7	394	901
10	La Casa	16.2	382	748
11	The Quintet	17.8	370	752
12	The visionaire	5.3	815	999
13	Esparina Residences	10.8	767	1158
14	The Topiary	8.6	735	1020
15	Park Green	18.9	388	790
16	Signature at Yishun	5.9	772	962
17	Whitewater	18.6	364	731
18	Citylife @ Tampines	8.5	796	1087
19	The Vales	6.0	789	977
20	The Esparis	19.0	393	767

Instead of using the “highest” transaction price, which is pretty representative of today’s hot property market, I use the latest “average” transaction price instead to do the sorting.

There are not many changes to this list although the older projects (such as The Dew, Nuovo, La Casa, etc) are now mostly ranked higher than in the previous list.

When comparing average launch prices vs. the current average selling price, the CAGR increment is more moderate, which goes without saying, but might not be representative of the true nature in today’s hot property market where everyone is looking to sell higher than the last transacted price.

Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #4

There are almost no “loss-making” projects (except Hundred Palms) if one’s horizon is long enough as can be seen from this list of the worst-performing EC in Singapore, with the dubious honor of worst performer going to Hundred Pams (slightly loss-making but lack track record since this project is newly completed) followed by Chestervale which was launched back in 1999.

Chestervale’s CAGR over this period is +1.7% when comparing the launch price against the current average selling price which is still “profitable”. However, if one includes the associated finance cost, using a longer-term average of 2.5-3% interest cost, then the project might not be a profitable one at the end of the day, assuming a purchase from Day 1.

	Executive Condo	Years from launch	Ave Launch price (psf)	Current Ave Price (psf)	CAGR (%) – Ave
1	Wandervale	5.4	765	1025	5.6%
2	Bishan Loft	20.0	408	1190	5.5%
3	Northwave	5.0	746	973	5.4%
4	Rivercove Residences	3.1	971	1144	5.4%
5	INZ Residence	4.4	774	969	5.3%
6	Sol Acres	6.0	787	1021	4.5%
7	Parc Life	5.3	785	988	4.4%
8	The Dew	20.2	377	890	4.3%
9	Nuovo	19.7	394	901	4.3%
10	La Casa	16.2	382	748	4.2%
11	The Quintet	17.8	370	752	4.1%
12	The visionaire	5.3	815	999	3.9%
13	Esparina Residences	10.8	767	1158	3.9%
14	The Topiary	8.6	735	1020	3.9%
15	Park Green	18.9	388	790	3.8%
16	Signature at Yishun	5.9	772	962	3.8%
17	Whitewater	18.6	364	731	3.8%
18	Citylife @ Tampines	8.5	796	1087	3.8%
19	The Vales	6.0	789	977	3.6%
20	The Esparis	19.0	393	767	3.6%
21	Prive	10.5	691	995	3.5%
22	The Brownstone	6.0	814	1003	3.5%
23	The Terrace	6.6	812	1017	3.5%
24	The Tampines Trilliant	9.5	781	1080	3.5%
25	Lilydale	19.6	353	683	3.4%
26	The Rainforest	9.5	745	1017	3.3%
27	Belysa	10.1	661	920	3.3%
28	Twin Waterfalls	9.4	730	986	3.3%
29	Westmere	24.9	401	867	3.1%
30	The Eden at Tampines	20.2	428	791	3.1%
31	Waterbay	8.7	755	979	3.0%
32	The Criterion	5.8	796	944	3.0%
33	Heron Bay	8.8	736	949	2.9%
34	The Floravale	22.3	359	683	2.9%
35	1 Canberra	9.1	705	913	2.9%
36	Skypark Residences	7.7	796	989	2.9%
37	BelleWaters	6.6	817	983	2.8%
38	Waterwoods	7.7	800	990	2.8%
39	Westwood Residences	6.2	803	953	2.8%
40	The Amore	6.5	800	957	2.8%
41	Blossom Residences	10.0	685	901	2.8%
42	Simei Green Condo Pinevale	24.4	402	781	2.8%
43	RiverParc Residence	10.0	681	890	2.7%
44	Woodsvale	23.0	354	640	2.6%
45	Windermere	24.1	357	663	2.6%
46	Twin Fountains	8.2	743	917	2.6%
47	Northoaks	23.1	360	644	2.6%
48	Arc at tampines	9.8	736	931	2.4%
49	Austville Residences	10.5	728	931	2.4%
50	Lush Acres	7.9	792	951	2.4%
51	Eastvale	24.9	406	720	2.3%
52	Ecopolitan	7.9	792	948	2.3%
53	Lake Life	6.7	872	1015	2.3%
54	Yew Mei Green	23.4	427	712	2.2%
55	The Florida	23.1	441	731	2.2%
56	Forestville	8.0	729	866	2.2%
57	The Canopy	10.7	651	818	2.2%
58	Watercolours	9.1	728	879	2.1%
59	Pinevale	23.9	459	730	2.0%
60	Sea Horizon	7.9	813	940	1.9%
61	Summerdale	23.2	441	673	1.8%
62	The Rivervale	23.2	472	715	1.8%
63	Bellewoods	6.6	799	899	1.8%
64	Chestervale	23.9	455	688	1.7%
65	Hundred Palms Residences	4.0	842	810	-1.0%

Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #5

Next up, I wish to find EC projects that witnessed the largest price appreciation over the PAST 1-YEAR. Which are the best performing ECs in Singapore over a 1-year horizon.

First, I used the projects’ average prices as of 2 June 2020 (from stackedhomes) and compare them against the latest average prices.

The best performing EC over a 1-year horizon is Simei Green Condo which is one of the pioneers ECs completed back in 1999. It saw a 1-year price appreciation of 26% which blows away the competition. This could either be a result of limited transactions skewing the data or buyers speculating on en-bloc potential?

	Executive Condo	Years from launch	Current Ave Price (psf)	Ave price as of 2 June 2020 (psf)	CAGR (%) – Ave
1	Simei Green Condo Pinevale	24.4	781	602	26.3%
2	Skypark Residences	7.7	989	806	20.1%
3	BelleWaters	6.6	983	808	19.2%
4	The Amore	6.5	957	819	15.0%
5	Forestville	8.0	866	744	14.6%
6	Waterwoods	7.7	990	859	13.6%
7	The Terrace	6.6	1017	884	13.4%
8	Sea Horizon	7.9	940	831	11.7%
9	Esparina Residences	10.8	1158	1027	11.4%
10	The Topiary	8.6	1020	911	10.7%
11	Citylife @ Tampines	8.5	1087	976	10.1%
12	Northoaks	23.1	644	585	9.0%
13	Bellewoods	6.6	899	821	8.5%
14	The Florida	23.1	731	668	8.4%
15	Yew Mei Green	23.4	712	652	8.2%
16	Chestervale	23.9	688	635	7.5%
17	Westmere	24.9	867	807	6.6%
18	Windermere	24.1	663	618	6.5%
19	Lilydale	19.6	683	639	6.2%
20	Woodsvale	23.0	640	599	6.1%

The other projects which saw the greatest price appreciation over the past 1-year are those in the 4+/5+ years mark which are hitting their 5-year MOP period soon or have just hit the MOP mark. Those projects saw 1-year appreciation rate in the high teens.

This might imply that projects that are soon to be MOP, ie, buyers can now sell them could see higher interests from potential speculators looking to make a quick flip when the project reaches the 5-year MOP mark although profit potential might be partially curtailed by the seller stamp duties in place.  

Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #6

Instead of using the latest average prices, I use the highest transacted price which might be more representative of the current climate to find out what might be the current scenario for the best performing EC over the past 1-year.

	Executive Condo	Years from launch	Current High Price (psf)	Ave price as of 2 June 2020 (psf)	CAGR (%) – High
1	Simei Green Condo Pinevale	24.4	844	602	35.4%
2	The Topiary	8.6	1161	911	24.3%
3	Yew Mei Green	23.4	829	652	24.0%
4	Forestville	8.0	936	744	22.9%
5	BelleWaters	6.6	998	808	20.9%
6	The Amore	6.5	1008	819	20.5%
7	Skypark Residences	7.7	989	806	20.1%
8	Waterwoods	7.7	1047	859	19.4%
9	Citylife @ Tampines	8.5	1186	976	19.1%
10	Eastvale	24.9	815	679	17.8%
11	Waterbay	8.7	1145	955	17.7%
12	The Florida	23.1	800	668	17.6%
13	Esparina Residences	10.8	1219	1027	16.6%
14	Blossom Residences	10.0	1046	887	15.9%
15	The Tampines Trilliant	9.5	1237	1049	15.9%
16	Northoaks	23.1	687	585	15.5%
17	Sea Horizon	7.9	973	831	15.2%
18	Bellewoods	6.6	961	821	15.2%
19	The Floravale	22.3	758	652	14.5%
20	The Rainforest	9.5	1117	965	14.0%

Simei Green remains the top-performing EC in the list. However, the Topiary has shot up to #2 in this list from #10 previously. Another oldie, Yew Mei Green takes the #3 spot while other names in this list are similar projects that have recently or going to achieve MOP status pretty soon.

Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #7

The only project that is hitting the full privatization status (ie: 10-years to completion) in this list is Esparina Residences, which despite appreciating by close to 17% from last year’s average price to the current “High Price”, is only ranked at #13 in this list.

Other soon to be privatized projects such as Prive (#40), Austville Residences (#30), and The Canopy (#47) are all pretty lowly ranked in terms of the past 1-year appreciation, which might imply that the full privatization effect (10-year mark) is not as important or it might not yet be evident.

Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #8

Not all EC projects hitting their MOP mark has faired well, with both Ecopolitan and Lake Life being one of the worst-performing projects over a 1-year horizon, based on existing data.

	Executive Condo	Years from launch	Current High Price (psf)	Ave price as of 2 June 2020 (psf)	CAGR (%) – High
42	The Dew	20.2	922	852	7.3%
43	The Esparis	19.0	820	759	7.2%
44	The Quintet	17.8	807	747	7.2%
45	Bishan Loft	20.0	1251	1170	6.2%
46	The Rivervale	23.2	765	723	5.2%
47	The Canopy	10.7	869	825	4.8%
48	Pinevale	23.9	761	723	4.7%
49	Lush Acres	7.9	1000	951	4.6%
50	Summerdale	23.2	720	693	3.5%
51	Ecopolitan	7.9	948	978	-2.8%
52	Lake Life	6.7	1015	1100	-7.0%

Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #9

Some projects with a huge variation between the appreciation rate using the “high price” vs. “average price” might be due to limited transactions and hence the data might not be fully representative of the current scenario.

	Executive Condo	Years from launch	CAGR (%) – Ave	CAGR (%) – High	Variation
1	Simei Green Condo Pinevale	24.4	26.3%	35.4%	9.1%
2	The Topiary	8.6	10.7%	24.3%	13.6%
3	Yew Mei Green	23.4	8.2%	24.0%	15.8%
4	Forestville	8.0	14.6%	22.9%	8.3%
5	BelleWaters	6.6	19.2%	20.9%	1.6%
6	The Amore	6.5	15.0%	20.5%	5.5%
7	Skypark Residences	7.7	20.1%	20.1%	0.0%
8	Waterwoods	7.7	13.6%	19.4%	5.8%
9	Citylife @ Tampines	8.5	10.1%	19.1%	9.0%
10	Eastvale	24.9	5.4%	17.8%	12.4%
11	Waterbay	8.7	2.3%	17.7%	15.4%
12	The Florida	23.1	8.4%	17.6%	9.1%
13	Esparina Residences	10.8	11.4%	16.6%	5.2%
14	Blossom Residences	10.0	1.4%	15.9%	14.5%
15	The Tampines Trilliant	9.5	2.6%	15.9%	13.3%
16	Northoaks	23.1	9.0%	15.5%	6.5%
17	Sea Horizon	7.9	11.7%	15.2%	3.5%
18	Bellewoods	6.6	8.5%	15.2%	6.7%
19	The Floravale	22.3	4.3%	14.5%	10.2%
20	The Rainforest	9.5	4.8%	14.0%	9.2%

For example, Topiary has a c.14% gap between the two, and Yew Mei Green has a 16% gap. Other notable younger projects with a huge gap include Waterbay, Blossom Residences, and The Tampines Trilliant.

More investigation would be required to see if the disparity is due to the skew between the low and high prices. If the majority of recent transactions are indeed completed at the “high price” mark, then using the highest price figure will be more representative of the current environment as well as for future projection.

A quick check on PropertyGuru shows that recent Topiary properties are mostly transacted below the $1,100 high mark. Hence, while listings are being advertised at the $1,200 level, those transactions might see difficulty in completion. In this case, it will be better to use the average price for Topiary properties.

Executive Condo Singapore: Observation #10

For projects where the disparity gap between Average price and Highest price is small (which is typical of projects before MOP), this could be due to the lack of significant transactions. 

For example, Skypark Residences, a project that just reaches MOP status saw a zero gap between the average and highest transaction prices. However, this is because of the limited number of completed transactions of late where there was only 1 completed transaction in 2021 at the high price of $989/psf.

Nonetheless, almost all listings for this project are now listed at above $1,000/psf which implies that the actual CAGR for Skypark will be higher than the current c.20% over a 1-year horizon.  

Conclusion

This simple exercise yields several conclusions.

When comparing the project’s CAGR since launch, typically new projects which have yet to MOP will see the greatest price appreciation. This is not unusual given that the entry price is usually lower at launch.

Bishan Loft is undoubtedly the best EC project since its launch, with a CAGR of 5.5%. Other old projects such as The Dew, Nuovo, La Casa, and The Quintet also fairs pretty reasonably in terms of growth potential since launch.

These projects have outshined some of the newer projects which have MOP (between 5 years and 10 years since completion) such as Esparina, Prive, Belysa, etc. Whether the tide will turn when this group of projects hit full privatization status might still be up for debate.

The 3 best performing ECs which have MOP but yet to hit privatization status are Esparina, Topiary, and Citylife@Tampines. These 3 projects have decent CAGR growth rate since project launch and the past 1-year price appreciation rate has also been very robust.

Based on my observation, EC projects that can garner a consistent CAGR of 4% since launch is considered very good. The growth rate needs to be accelerated in the first 5-years upon completion.

The highest growth rate seems to be when the project is between 3-5 years upon completion. 

Thereafter, the growth rate will typically slow down and other factors (area re-development, etc) might be required to further boost the project’s appreciation rate.

Some older projects have seen renewed interest over the past 1 year which might be more speculative? En-bloc wave again perhaps? 

There is no conclusive evidence based on the data that projects almost hitting full privatization status will witness increasing price appreciation. The most relevant project concerning this is Prive and Esparina, with the former witnessing a decline in average selling prices over a 1-year horizon while the latter generating strong appreciation, likely because Sengkang Grand Integrated Development will be ready over the next few years.

If history is to repeat itself, then the latest EC offering, Parc Greenwich might also surprise positively on the upside in terms of future appreciation. Despite the relatively “ulu” location, The Topiary (which is situated next to Parc Greenwich) has done very well in terms of price appreciation, to my surprise. The project’s low launch price could be one major factor.

In the same context, Parc Greenwich, if it is indeed launched at approx. $1,000/psf, will be > 10% cheaper than ECs launched in the past couple of years. That could be one major factor in the project’s outperformance over the next decade.

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